Statistical Analysis of Predictive Patterns in Jyotish Charts Part II – Analysis of Election Candidates by John Ryder

Article by John Ryder

Introduction and Background

In Part I of this article (Saptarishis Astrology Volume 9 Article 207) the case was presented for the use of statistical analysis in the study of Jyotish chart indicators, and a detailed case study was described; this focused on the timing of elevation of the highest level political leaders in the world during the 20th century, and the following predictive approach was seen to hold true for 48 of the 70 political charts that were studied, compared with a random expectation of 34 charts:

“Elevation of leaders is likely to be seen during the dasha periods of planets that are disposited in the signs or nakshatras of strong kendra and trikona lords in charts. The primary basis for selection of these house lords is through the yogas they participate in, but other factors such as position and other strengths are also used in this assessment.”

When allowance was made for possible inaccuracies in chart data and judgments in the selection of yogas, this reduced to 46 charts, a result which has 1 in 500 chance of arising on a random basis. This provided strong support for the concept of kendra and trikona lord yoga planets acting as sign and nakshatra dispositors of the dasha lord at the time of elevation. Results for yoga planets timing directly were also studied and found to be no different to the random expectation, demonstrating the benefits of statistical analysis in refining our understanding of the application of Jyotish techniques.
At a practical level the above rule has been used to compare the prospects of the winning and losing candidates in 27 historical US, UK and French elections, and details of this analysis along with some example charts are presented in this second article. The most recent May 2012 French election is also analysed, along with the charts of the two candidates in the upcoming November 2012 US election.

Comparative Analysis – Candidates’ Charts

Working with the main data base of 44 leaders’ charts, charts of the losing candidates in the elections where these leaders gained or established power were reviewed. While in Germany the Chancellor appears to have been appointed on several occasions following a negotiation of coalition governments, in the US, UK and France the elections are generally focused on the two main party candidates. The 2010 UK election was also studied, although Prime Minister Cameron was not included in the elevation study due to his short time in office at the time of this study. In many cases the charts of losing candidates are unavailable or unreliable, but there are 27 US, UK and French elections from the 20th and early 21st centuries for which reasonably reliable charts are available for both candidates. (The election dates and candidate’s birth data are listed in Appendix A).
These 27 elections provide a good basis for comparative analysis of the charts of the paired candidates, using the predictive rule noted above. Results of this analysis are presented in Table 1 below for the following four cases:

1. The dasha planet at time of elevation is disposited by a planet belonging to the group of all kendra and trikona lord yogas in the chart (‘All Yogas’ case).
2. The dasha planet at time of elevation is disposited by a planet belonging to a selected kendra and trikona lord yogas in the chart. (‘Sel. Yogas’ case). The basis of this selection procedure is explained in Part I of this article.
3. The dasha planet at the time of elevation is either the 10th lord, in or aspecting the 10th house, or is Sun or Rahu as 10th house karaka planets. (‘10th House’ case) This house based approach, which was examined along with the yoga cases in the initial study, demonstrated a slightly weaker but still reasonable level of statistical strength and so was included in the election analysis.)
4. The dasha lord at time of elevation belongs to both of groups 2 & 3 above; i.e. there is overlap or confluence between these two groups in the timing analysis (‘Confl.’ case).

Note (1): Results have been adjusted (downward) to compensate for possible chart inaccuracies.
Note (2): The mean values are based on the number of planets engaged in each chart for each indicator, and hence are slightly different for each group of charts.

The difference between the overall results for the winning and losing candidates is quite marked; results for the winning candidates follow the patterns found in the successful leaders’ charts (explained in Part I of this article), with X/ values of the order of 1.4 and above, and (X – µ) values rising above the mean in proportion to the number of charts. On the other hand results for the losing candidates are very similar to the expected random pattern. The result with the strongest pattern is for the ‘confluence’ condition, suggesting that the supporting 10th House indications provide important clues in this comparative analysis.
Although based on a modest sample, this ‘null’ result for the losing candidates’ charts provides further support for the proposed predictive rule. While at one level the positive results in this group represent the random pattern, at another they are interacting with the winning candidates’ charts in election situations; the results in Table 1 suggest a statistically based approach that can be introduced into the analysis of ‘two candidate’ elections, to be studied alongside other indicators and the national and event charts normally used in election analysis. When studied individually the pairs of charts in these 27 elections follow several distinct patterns. (These patterns are annotated in the tabulated list of elections in Appendix A).

Pattern 1 – Stronger Yoga Patterns in Winning Candidates Chart

In these charts there is timing support through the yogas analysis in the winning candidates but not the losing candidates. This arises in the 11 cases of losing candidates T Roosevelt in 1912 , Landon in 1936, Kerry in 2004, Callaghan in 1979, Kinnock in 1987 & 1992, Hague in 2001, Mitterand in 1965, Poher in 1969, Jospin in 1995 and Royal in 2007. The comparative charts of Wilson & Roosevelt in the 1912 US election, presented below, are typical of this group. (The 4 boxes across the base of each chart represent the four indicator cases analysed in Table 1; the shaded boxes show successful indicators, marked Y. Unsuccessful indicators are marked N).

In the Wilson chart Mercury and Saturn form a Raja Yoga between the 10th and 5th lords across the 4/10 axis. Dasha planet Saturn is disposited by Mercury in the 10th house. (While the observed strengths can be described in other ways in some charts, for example in this case Saturn is simply the dasha lord in the 10th house, these became a statistically strong group when collected together through the dispositor rule, and this approach has been applied consistently through the analyses.)
Jupiter and Venus form a Raja Yoga between the 10th and 5th lords in the Roosevelt chart, but while Venus as the dasha lord is in the Yoga, there is no dispositor relationship as required by the rule. As noted earlier, the case of yoga planets timing directly, which arises in this chart, scored no better than random chance in the 70 political elevation charts, while the case of dasha planets disposited by strong yoga planets was far more successful in the statistical analysis.

Pattern 2 – Winning Candidates Chart Stronger in more Indicators

In this group there is generally stronger timing support in the winning candidates chart; in 5 cases there is full confluence in the winning candidates’ charts, but timing support through the yogas analysis only in the losing candidates’ charts, without any 10th house influence. This applies in the 5 elections of F Roosevelt vs. Hoover & Wilkie, Carter vs. Ford, H Wilson vs. Douglas Home, and Mitterand vs. d’Estaing. In 2 other cases the losing candidates chart has support through the All Yogas analysis but not the Selected Yogas; Nixon vs. McGovern in 1972 and Bush Snr. vs. Dukakis in 1988. The comparative charts of Carter & Ford in the 1976 US election, presented below, are typical of this group.

There are thee kendra and trikona lord yogas in the Carter chart; Moon and Saturn as 10th and 5th lords and Venus and Mercury as 1st and 9th lords form Raja Yoga combinations, while Saturn in its own sign in the 1st house forms a Maha Purusha Yoga. The strongest of these yogas is between Moon and Saturn as 10th and 5th lords. Dasha planet Ketu is disposited by Saturn and is also aspecting the 10th house, and so fulfills all criteria.

Sun and Jupiter form a Raja Yoga between the 5th and 9th lords in Fords chart, and Mars in its own sign in the 1st house forms a Maha Purusha Yoga. Mars disposits the dasha planet Moon, but the selected two planet Raja Yoga has no dispositor influence, and nor does Moon influence the 10th house.

Pattern 3 – both Charts having Similar Indications

In this group there are similar levels of support in both charts; this applies in the 4 cases of Kennedy vs. Nixon, GW Bush vs. Gore, Obama vs. McCain and Mitterand vs. Chirac. Since it was necessary to focus the number of indicators examined in the statistical analysis, other Jyotish indicators need to be examined to help differentiate between these charts, and in most cases a wider assessment provides clues to the favored candidate. The comparative charts of Kennedy & Nixon in the 1960 US election and Mitterand & Chirac in the 1988 French election are presented below by way of example.

Jupiter and Venus as 4th and 9th lords form a strong Raja Yoga in the Kennedy chart, and Jupiter is the dispositor of Rahu which also aspects the 10th house. In the Nixon chart Jupiter and Sun and Mars form a series of Raja Yogas between the 5th, 1st and 4th & 9th lords. Since Mars is in a war with Mercury the Jupiter Sun combination is selected as the strongest yoga. The dasha planet Saturn is in Krittika nakshatra ruled by Sun and is also well placed in the 10th house, and it is seen that both charts have dasha planets disposited by good yogas and with influence on the 10th house.

This was a close election, and other chart influences need to be studied. At the time of the election Kennedy was in Ra-Ma dasha bhukti period having a positive 5/9 relationship in the chart, and Nixon was in Sa-Ve having a good 4/10 relationship. Venus in the Nixon chart is also 10th lord, while Mars is 3rd & 8th lord in the Kennedy chart, forming a positive Sarala Yoga in the 8th house. This yoga can be associated with a sudden rise of life, and appears to have operated more strongly in the Kennedy chart than 10th lord Venus in the Nixon chart, emphasising the importance of all yogas in these charts.

Both charts have dasha planets disposited by kendra lord yogas with 10th house or Rahu associations. In the Mitterand chart the 1st & 10th lord and Bhadra Yoga planet Mercury is also the dasha lord, whereas the Chirac dasha planet Rahu is in the 2nd house disposited by Saturn, which forms Shasha Yoga in the 1st house and also a Co-Worker Yoga with Venus as 10th lord in its own sign. This suggests a subtle distinction of greater strength in the Mitterand chart. Mitterand is in Me-Ma dasha bhukti where Mars in 3rd lord in the 3rd. For Chirac Ra-Me dasha bhukti is a 1/10 relationship and also quite strong.

Pattern 4 – Losing Charts with Stronger Indications

In 5 of the elections the winning candidates charts are stronger than those of the losing candidates when the proposed predictive rule is applied. These are the cases of Clinton vs. Bush Snr, Clinton vs. Dole, Blair vs. Major, Cameron vs. Brown and d’Estaing vs. Mitterand. The losing candidate in 4 of these elections (all except Dole) won an election on another occasion, suggesting that their charts must be inherently strong. There are also some wider factors to be considered in understanding these results:

• Clinton vs. Bush Snr, Clinton vs. Dole: The anomalous results are based on the Clinton birth time favored by Astrodatabank, giving a Virgo ascendant. Earlier birth times are also quoted by some sources giving rise to a Cancer ascendant, which provides far stronger and more equal timing support in both of these elections.

• Blair vs. Major: Major was leading an 18 year old government and in the mind of the people it was ‘time for a change’; wider factors were clearly at play. While there was full confluence in the Major chart the Blair chart was also strong with AY and SY support for the dasha lord.

• Cameron vs. Brown: Both charts are weak against the proposed criteria, which may be reflected in the fact that Cameron did not win the election outright, and is tied into a coalition government.

• d’Estaing vs. Mitterand: This was the closest ever French election with a 1.6% margin, and reflected some wider factors; following the death of Pompidou there was a short time only for candidates to prepare and d’Estaing was able to portray himself as “the change in the continuity” of the incumbent party; and this was the first time that Mitterand stood for election during his Mercury dasha, which would support his success against d’Estaing in 1981, and Chirac in 1988.

Confirmation of Predictive Rule

The proposed rule has provided a clear basis for predicting the outcome of the 11 ‘pattern 1’ and 7 ‘pattern 2’ elections, and provided a strong base from which to extend a wider Jyotish analysis in the ‘pattern 3’ elections. Discounting the 5 ‘pattern 4’ elections accepting the judgments as valid in say 2 of the ‘pattern 3’ elections, it has been possible to predict or judge the outcome of about 20 or 75% of the 27 elections in this way. This compares with a random expectation of 50% or 13.5, with an effect size of 6.5 and effect ratio of 1.48, consistent with the chart results for the winning candidates. This is a good predictive rate for any Jyotish technique, and in this case is statistically based.
The value of the predictive rule for elevation has been confirmed at a practical level, and in the context of elections the following broader qualification can be added:

Comparative study of the relative strength of the other candidates’ chart should also be carried out as part of a final determination, also keeping in mind any directions suggested by the event chart and the national chart if accurately available. If a clear distinction cannot be made, study other features of the charts including other yogas and the bhukti rulers. Trends in the timing patterns should also be studied, especially when the bhukti planets change at critical times during the election and appointment process.

Analysis of Recent and Upcoming Elections

The comparative charts of Hollande & Sarkozy in the May 2012 French election are presented below. While there are no kendra and trikona lord Raja Yogas in the Sarkozy chart, Saturn as exalted 5th lord, and Jupiter as 4th and 7th lord in the 10th are the strongest of these lords; they are also conjunct in the navamsha chart. When Sarkozy was first elected in 2007 he was in Sun dasha, disposited by Saturn. During the 2012 election he was in Moon dasha, disposited by Jupiter. In the Hollande chart Mercury and Sun form a conventional Raja Yoga between the 5th and 4th lords, and the dasha planet Jupiter is disposited by Mercury while also aspecting the 10th house. By this assessment the Hollande chart is the strongest chart for elevation at the time, and as is known Hollande won this election.

The comparative charts of candidates Obama & Romney in the upcoming November 2012 US election are presented below. Using the proposed rule the Obama chart has ascendant lord Saturn in the self dispositing Shasha Yoga, as well as in a Raja Yoga with Mercury and also aspecting the 10th house. This is a very strong position. While Mercury and Sun form a strong Raja Yoga in the 10th house of the Romney chart, neither of these disposits the dasha planet Sun.

As noted earlier, there was no statistical support for the case of yoga planets timing directly, which arises in this chart, while the case of dasha planets disposited by strong yoga planets was much stronger. On this basis we conclude that the Obama chart is stronger according to the proposed rule, and it seems more probable that he will win the election. It is interesting that Obama moved into Saturn dasha in late July, and his political fortunes appear to have been strengthening since that date.

Appendix A – List of Elections and Candidates

About Author: John Ryder holds an honours degree in Civil engineering and has worked with international engineering consultancies for over 30 years, at times holding senior management positions. He is based in Sydney Australia and has followed a strong interest in Jyotish for many years; his engineering background led to development of the statistical approaches reported in this article. He has studied with Komilla Sutton and Keven Barrett, and dedicates this article to Keven who passed away earlier this year. Keven received his training in Vedic astrology in India, and passed on a deep knowledge of Jyotish to his students in Australia. Among the many teachings Keven shared, he always emphasised the importance of the nakshatra dispositor of the dasha lord, which has been strongly supported in the statistical analysis reported below. Without Keven’s guidance and inspiration this work would not have developed in the right direction, and all credit is due to Keven and his lineage of great teachers in India.